Is the bitcoin September 2021 price going to new all-time highs or will it face a severe crash? Read or Q&A for Bitcoin’s price in September 2021 below.
1. Can Bitcoin rebound back to the $60,000 range in September?
Even at current consolidated levels, the Bitcoin September price ( as of September 13th) has increased by more than 50% since its July lows, and despite its recent minor pullback, it remains at very high-risk levels.
I expect BTC to face some strong resistance in the $50k-$60k range and will likely need to consolidate for a few months before gaining enough confidence and momentum to test and break the all-time highs.
2. Are there any signs of a Bitcoin September price recovery?
– Historically, Septembers are bearish for both crypto (avg. return: -5.78%), and the stock markets (avg. return: -0.1%), but if such a correction occurs, it can be beneficial for the mid/long-term price momentum.
A BTC correction back to the 21w EMA (currently at appx $42k) will be healthy for the market since it will help cool down many indicators, offer a chance for a new accumulation phase, and give enough momentum to trend higher by the end of 2021, and in 2022.
A big catalyst which will determine if the $42k will hold is how the stock market’s will perfor. Below we see the perfromance of the S&P 500 during the since Janurary 2020.
The blue line indicates the 200 day Standard Moving Average (200d SMA), This support line was not tested since July 2020, over a year ago. Typically the 200d SMA will get tested on average 3 times per year during an S&P bull run. When the price action gets over-extented from it’s moving averages for a much higher period than usual, then typically a more sudden, steep correction occurs.
Also Septembers historically have been historically the worst performing months in the S&P, from 1927 until today, with a 0.1% negative return. All other months in S&P’s history have averaged positive returns.
More factors cause further instability in the stock markets such as:
- the growing expansion of delta variant
- the gridlock for the new stimulus plan
- the raging 12-month inflation rates to 5.4%
- the antipation of a premature interest rate rise by the FED
- the fears of a national debt default by October
Overal, the stock market’s are being held in very dangerous position, and any correction more than 3% (with a possible range between 5%-10%) will bring a much higher correction the cryptocurrency market. If the S&P tests the 200d SMA, then a 20%-30% BTC correction is a very likely aftermath.
However, we do excpect this correction to be short-lived, and not the end of this bull-run on both the crypto and stock markets. We will analyse more in depth the long-term potential of both markets in October 1st.
3. Will PlanB’s S2F stay validated in 2021?
While PlanB’s S2FX model has already been invalidated, the S2F model remains marginally validated by touching the lower floor estimates of August at $47k. However, I believe there’s a good chance that September’s lower floors estimates at $43k will also be respected and that if this happens, the model’s $100k+ BTC price prediction by the end of the year may come true as well.
This September will be the most critical month for the S2F model, since if in the case of a correction the $43k level doesn’t hold (which currently also aligns with the 21w EMA/20d SMA) then the $100k+ BTC premise in 2021 will be very hard to happen.
4. Is there are growth in institutional interest for BTC in Q3 2021?
There are some more indicators for growing institutional interest, such as the increasing Purpose Bitcoin ETF inflows and the downward trend for OTC Desks Balance. More bluechip companies such as Amazon and Walmart are hiring cryptocurrency experts, which indicates the potential of higher institutional adoption.
Final thoughts for Bitcoin September price
Bitcoins’ price will be largely dependent on the stock market’s volatility. Even though Bitcoin’s daily correlation to the S&P 500 has fallen from 0.85 to 0.60, it remains at very high levels, which indicates a significant risk in the historically turbulent September & October.
We will be waiting for indications of holding the 200d
See the full video bitcoin price analysis here.
For a clearer idea about the past bitcoin price action, read our August BTC price analysis.
